"New player population was already an issue relative to growth curve"
whatever that means
", not because of mudflation. "
Inflation one of many factors.
"I am just saying it's not as bad as people are making it out to be."
We'll just have to agree to disagree.
A Huge problem with duping and macroing in EQ now
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by Tyck » Wed Jan 11, 2006 5:18 pm
What is really interesting to keep in mind, it is trivial for SonyEQ to know exactly who is making the plat and how.
There are a limited number of ways that plat enters the world, all of them tracked by Sony (according to past posts by EQ devs and gms).
Ways to "Mint" new plat:
1. A npc quest gives the player plat
2. A player sells an item to an npc for plat
3. A player loots plat off a npc's corpse
4. A player loots plat off a world object (fuzzy on this one, chests and such, right?)
There are a limited number of ways that you can "Unmint" plat:
A. A player destroys the plat
B. A player buys something from a merchant
C. A player hands the plat to a NPC (wasn't it 5000cp to that guy in RatheMtn!)
D. A player drops plat on the ground and it rots (discontinued)
Now, about 3 years ago they discontinued dropping plat exactly because people could pick it up and it would break their plat tracking program they were using to sniff out exploits. They talked about it several times in forums before they were done justifying why we would no longer be able to use coins on the ground as markers for our raids.
So, Sony only has to run some simple queries of their event tracking DB to know exactly who is Minting more than say 100kpp a day. Then they only need to look at the specific events and their timing to see how they did it.
Additionally, they can run the same event tracking DB thru a query that will tell them who is receiving 100kpp from those "Minters" and then run that list thru several iterations to get the "Distribution" network.
Finally they can look at the final "Distribution" network for the people that are actually "Unminting" the plat.
Certain criteria can be used for determining "Plat Launderers" in the network of "Distributors". These are the clever fellows that take 100k plat, buy patterns worth that much at Bazaar and then turn around and sell those patterns to legidimate buyers.
This is all very do-able. It is exactly what happens with all the money you report to the Federal Government (in the US) and the transactions that happen with the Banking system. It is how the FBI tracks down money launderers.
If Sony wanted to make a effort to shut down this process, they could.
But, I belive that they are currently running the game in "Sustain and Preserve" mode.
That means they will do nothing that will cause any drop in subscriptions.
Shutting down the Plat-Sellers would definitely cause a drop in subscriptions from them and their plat-buying customers.
- Tyck
There are a limited number of ways that plat enters the world, all of them tracked by Sony (according to past posts by EQ devs and gms).
Ways to "Mint" new plat:
1. A npc quest gives the player plat
2. A player sells an item to an npc for plat
3. A player loots plat off a npc's corpse
4. A player loots plat off a world object (fuzzy on this one, chests and such, right?)
There are a limited number of ways that you can "Unmint" plat:
A. A player destroys the plat
B. A player buys something from a merchant
C. A player hands the plat to a NPC (wasn't it 5000cp to that guy in RatheMtn!)
D. A player drops plat on the ground and it rots (discontinued)
Now, about 3 years ago they discontinued dropping plat exactly because people could pick it up and it would break their plat tracking program they were using to sniff out exploits. They talked about it several times in forums before they were done justifying why we would no longer be able to use coins on the ground as markers for our raids.
So, Sony only has to run some simple queries of their event tracking DB to know exactly who is Minting more than say 100kpp a day. Then they only need to look at the specific events and their timing to see how they did it.
Additionally, they can run the same event tracking DB thru a query that will tell them who is receiving 100kpp from those "Minters" and then run that list thru several iterations to get the "Distribution" network.
Finally they can look at the final "Distribution" network for the people that are actually "Unminting" the plat.
Certain criteria can be used for determining "Plat Launderers" in the network of "Distributors". These are the clever fellows that take 100k plat, buy patterns worth that much at Bazaar and then turn around and sell those patterns to legidimate buyers.
This is all very do-able. It is exactly what happens with all the money you report to the Federal Government (in the US) and the transactions that happen with the Banking system. It is how the FBI tracks down money launderers.
If Sony wanted to make a effort to shut down this process, they could.
But, I belive that they are currently running the game in "Sustain and Preserve" mode.
That means they will do nothing that will cause any drop in subscriptions.
Shutting down the Plat-Sellers would definitely cause a drop in subscriptions from them and their plat-buying customers.
- Tyck
- Tyck
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by Finori » Mon Jan 16, 2006 12:14 am
All money aside ... what matters to most of us would be dramatic price fluctuations. Concernedeq, would you be so kind to point out some of the items (preferably shaman usable), which have gone up in price over the past month. You can use to track bazaar items server wide.
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by Gadzuks » Mon Jan 16, 2006 6:24 am
EQEcon only tracks 2 month's worth of prices for anything (yes, I do have a premium membership), and the posts by concernedeq states that the plat flood has been active for longer than that ("Until September / October. This is when the major problems started.").
So, I am not sure what that will prove. (Can you suggest any particular items that might be relevent? I certainly noticed a sharp upward spike in tradeable Rune prices just when DoD was coming out (exactly that time frame), despite the addition of the Shadowspine runes to the game... I certainly can't explain why that should be so when it's generally much easier to get Shadowspine runes than Muramite, and even now Minor and Lesser runes are being priced at 20k or higher on AB).
So, I am not sure what that will prove. (Can you suggest any particular items that might be relevent? I certainly noticed a sharp upward spike in tradeable Rune prices just when DoD was coming out (exactly that time frame), despite the addition of the Shadowspine runes to the game... I certainly can't explain why that should be so when it's generally much easier to get Shadowspine runes than Muramite, and even now Minor and Lesser runes are being priced at 20k or higher on AB).
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by concernedeq » Mon Jan 16, 2006 6:09 pm
You really can't look at eqecon and come up with what I am trying to get across, because it takes time for this stuff to proliferate into the game. If someone dupes up 10 million plat tomorrow and tosses it into the bazaar, it isn't going to raise prices. But if someone does that every day, for months, it will.
A way to tell is by looking at trader logs, if you keep them. Normal tendency for items over the years is as expansions and better gear come out, that the items from previous expansions lose value.
For instance, let's look at Ornate Chain Tunic since this is a shaman useable item. Back when Planes of Power was the top expansion, my trader logs show that this tunic sold for around 80,000 platinum on average. This was a top end chest slot item and is a pretty good indicator of a ceiling price for the semi rare drops. By the time Gates of Discord was out, this tunic was selling for 30,000 platinum on average. Once Omens of War came out, this tunic was fetching about 45,000 platinum (keep in mind this was after the mess at the end of 2003).
Current average Ornate Chain Tunic price on the servers I was on? 60,000 platinum.
When you look at ceiling price for semi rare items per expansion to see inflation, you need to look at different items because in the ornate chain tunic example above, it is not a top end semi rare once a new expansion comes out.
For instance look at Glimmering Veil of Piety from Omens of War. These sold for about 100,000 platinum and is a good example of a ceiling price for that expansion. This was one year ago. The ceiling price for a semi rare from Dragons of Norrath would be the top end cultural armors, and early summer these were cheaper than they are now, at about 100,000 platinum each for the breastplates and legs, and 35,000 platinum for the augs for them. By late summer these items had climbed quite a bit and they now rest around 250,000 platinum each for the breastplate and legs and 60,000 platinum or more per aug. Metallic drake scales moved from 10,000 platinum each to 35,000 platinum each, as did glossy drake hides. Now take a look at Depths of Darkhollow drops, it is not uncommon to see those items for 350,000 to 500,000 platinum.
That's how you can see the inflation, in whatever the top end items carry for a price. This should always be a bit more each expansion, but within a single year the ceiling should not raise by 3 to 5 times what it was the year before. If prices are going up by an average of 1% per day, the player won't notice that.
Another way you can tell that there is inflation is that the old items are not decreasing in price as they should. The Glimmering Veil of Piety in my example above, while fetching about 50,000 platinum in June, is now again almost fetching 100,000 platinum. These items which should eventually trickle down to being affordable for most players, are going up in price.
As of January 13th, one of the sellers in the conglomerate of them which have access to duped stocks of platinum decided he was not getting enough sales and cut his sell price by 20% again. The others will follow, I am sure, and a couple of weeks later another one of them will decide they want some more sales and cut prices again. This has been going on since October unchecked, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see platinum selling at my $5 for 100,000 estimate above within a few months. It would only take 6 more of these price cuts, and at the rate they are arguing and not seeing eye to eye, expect one every two weeks or so.
The biggest problem in 2003 was that someone got ahold of the exploit that allowed unlimited plat and went and bought up all the high end stuff in all the bazaars, pushing prices up and up over a couple of weeks. It's dangerous that something like that is out there again, as the same thing could happen if someone gets ahold of it and decides to do that. Prices will skyrocket. Unless that happens though, you won't see massive inflation over a few days, just steady inflation outpacing most of the playerbase on a day to day basis.
A way to tell is by looking at trader logs, if you keep them. Normal tendency for items over the years is as expansions and better gear come out, that the items from previous expansions lose value.
For instance, let's look at Ornate Chain Tunic since this is a shaman useable item. Back when Planes of Power was the top expansion, my trader logs show that this tunic sold for around 80,000 platinum on average. This was a top end chest slot item and is a pretty good indicator of a ceiling price for the semi rare drops. By the time Gates of Discord was out, this tunic was selling for 30,000 platinum on average. Once Omens of War came out, this tunic was fetching about 45,000 platinum (keep in mind this was after the mess at the end of 2003).
Current average Ornate Chain Tunic price on the servers I was on? 60,000 platinum.
When you look at ceiling price for semi rare items per expansion to see inflation, you need to look at different items because in the ornate chain tunic example above, it is not a top end semi rare once a new expansion comes out.
For instance look at Glimmering Veil of Piety from Omens of War. These sold for about 100,000 platinum and is a good example of a ceiling price for that expansion. This was one year ago. The ceiling price for a semi rare from Dragons of Norrath would be the top end cultural armors, and early summer these were cheaper than they are now, at about 100,000 platinum each for the breastplates and legs, and 35,000 platinum for the augs for them. By late summer these items had climbed quite a bit and they now rest around 250,000 platinum each for the breastplate and legs and 60,000 platinum or more per aug. Metallic drake scales moved from 10,000 platinum each to 35,000 platinum each, as did glossy drake hides. Now take a look at Depths of Darkhollow drops, it is not uncommon to see those items for 350,000 to 500,000 platinum.
That's how you can see the inflation, in whatever the top end items carry for a price. This should always be a bit more each expansion, but within a single year the ceiling should not raise by 3 to 5 times what it was the year before. If prices are going up by an average of 1% per day, the player won't notice that.
Another way you can tell that there is inflation is that the old items are not decreasing in price as they should. The Glimmering Veil of Piety in my example above, while fetching about 50,000 platinum in June, is now again almost fetching 100,000 platinum. These items which should eventually trickle down to being affordable for most players, are going up in price.
As of January 13th, one of the sellers in the conglomerate of them which have access to duped stocks of platinum decided he was not getting enough sales and cut his sell price by 20% again. The others will follow, I am sure, and a couple of weeks later another one of them will decide they want some more sales and cut prices again. This has been going on since October unchecked, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see platinum selling at my $5 for 100,000 estimate above within a few months. It would only take 6 more of these price cuts, and at the rate they are arguing and not seeing eye to eye, expect one every two weeks or so.
The biggest problem in 2003 was that someone got ahold of the exploit that allowed unlimited plat and went and bought up all the high end stuff in all the bazaars, pushing prices up and up over a couple of weeks. It's dangerous that something like that is out there again, as the same thing could happen if someone gets ahold of it and decides to do that. Prices will skyrocket. Unless that happens though, you won't see massive inflation over a few days, just steady inflation outpacing most of the playerbase on a day to day basis.
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by concernedeq » Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:38 am
Mead I'm sorry but I am not sure of your point. I know what I am trying to say and I also know it can be picked apart and looked at 100 different ways and thus is not a good way of making a point so I'll agree to disagree with you.
To reinforce what I have been saying, the largest seller of platinum has dropped their buy price from $20 per 100k to $10 per 100k as of tonight. I had not thought it would get this low for some time, but I wouldn't expect $5 per 100k to be too far off, maybe a few weeks instead of more than 6 which was my estimate.
Also although they have a $10 per 100k buy price they are near overstock levels at this price and you can't sell them more than a couple hundred k. Overstock for a seller means 10 million or more, generally. Other than the one seller offering $10 per 100k, the others are all completely overstocked and not accepting any, on any server.
I'm not sure what it will take or what point it has to get to for anyone to get bothered by it. I also understand that not everyone cares about or uses the bazaar at all, but something like this left unchecked can and will cause some waves in the game that those that do not take advantage of it will be jostled around by. If prices hit $10 per million would you be concerned? It will get there, if it's left unfixed.
To reinforce what I have been saying, the largest seller of platinum has dropped their buy price from $20 per 100k to $10 per 100k as of tonight. I had not thought it would get this low for some time, but I wouldn't expect $5 per 100k to be too far off, maybe a few weeks instead of more than 6 which was my estimate.
Also although they have a $10 per 100k buy price they are near overstock levels at this price and you can't sell them more than a couple hundred k. Overstock for a seller means 10 million or more, generally. Other than the one seller offering $10 per 100k, the others are all completely overstocked and not accepting any, on any server.
I'm not sure what it will take or what point it has to get to for anyone to get bothered by it. I also understand that not everyone cares about or uses the bazaar at all, but something like this left unchecked can and will cause some waves in the game that those that do not take advantage of it will be jostled around by. If prices hit $10 per million would you be concerned? It will get there, if it's left unfixed.
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by Brohg » Tue Jan 17, 2006 12:25 pm
What's your point, Mead? I just don't get it. There's plenty of inuendo in there, but no conclusion. Obviously you think concernedeq has some ulterior motive, but you never say what that could possibly be. Raising awareness IS part of working toward a solution, and he seems positioned to offer a perspective nearly all players don't share. You need to actually say something, make a point, to participate here. Call him out, if that's your wish, but do so with some basis.
As for , where do you think the plat they have came from, dumbass? Honest high end raiders accumulate those plat stores by selling hard-to-get or rare high end drops in the Bazaar, not by selling 500,000 Fine Steel Scimitars to vendors. This uniquely exposes their banks to flooding by duped plat, since that's what it takes to purchase significant volume of pricey dropped items. That's why SOE plat removal schemes target raiders.
Consider seriously the expense of PoP Ornate Armor, Elemental armor, Qvic armor (60k per character that gets flagged, sometimes 3 & 4 characters per player), and the enormous volume of plat plowed into Peridots, Emeralds, Coffins, Soulstones (1k per single group wipe, 9kish for a raid wipe, innumerable solo occasions), and om-f-g Tradeskills. Our dear baby Alchemy may take many kpp, but is a drop in the bucket compared to how much plat basically evaporates to generate skill points in Jewelcraft, Fletching, Pottery, Smithing and Tailoring. Not plat circulating in Bazaar to get pelts/ore/whatever, but plat directly sunk out of the game into vendors.
Now consider a recent event, the Halloween quests, that granted any character of any level interested in the least in the novelty of a skeleton illusion the item of their dreams. From bleeding-edge progressive raiders to complete newbie level 15s, anyone with any interest in skele illusion could get it that month.
Think about how long Amulet of Necropotence has been farmed. The mobs that can drop it have never survived more than 24 hours of spawning. Ever. In six years. And barring 1 in a mil kluztiness, none has ever left the game. The number of them has increased linearly for SIX YEARS.
And yet pre and post Halloween, AoN sells for upward of 300kpp. High value as a droppable instant clicky is fine, but the *entire* novelty market has fallen out, and the supply is constant, even increasing. Where's the price adjustment?
The fact is, there's far more plat in circulation than there should be. The crazy multiplication of sunk costs associated with playing are attempts to remove past currency gluts from the market, but obviously aren't keeping pace. I soloed a rarish drop from Stoneroot Falls yesterday on the way to a raid in Demiplane, and PC'd it with my more active seller friends. They said this item, which would only be good to strict non-raiders, as a weapon worse than 1.5/despair, is worth over 100kpp. It boggled me that folks could spend so much on the equivalent of an old Heirophant Cloak (one of the best droppable items a group could get), but it's true. Plat is that proliferant. Folks can name their price on whatever they want, from crystals to MDS to OoW aug parts, and get it, because there's so much plat floating around. Sellers of commodities don't have to compete for their slice of player resources, because that pie is is effectively infinite, and seems ever-expanding.
As for , where do you think the plat they have came from, dumbass? Honest high end raiders accumulate those plat stores by selling hard-to-get or rare high end drops in the Bazaar, not by selling 500,000 Fine Steel Scimitars to vendors. This uniquely exposes their banks to flooding by duped plat, since that's what it takes to purchase significant volume of pricey dropped items. That's why SOE plat removal schemes target raiders.
Consider seriously the expense of PoP Ornate Armor, Elemental armor, Qvic armor (60k per character that gets flagged, sometimes 3 & 4 characters per player), and the enormous volume of plat plowed into Peridots, Emeralds, Coffins, Soulstones (1k per single group wipe, 9kish for a raid wipe, innumerable solo occasions), and om-f-g Tradeskills. Our dear baby Alchemy may take many kpp, but is a drop in the bucket compared to how much plat basically evaporates to generate skill points in Jewelcraft, Fletching, Pottery, Smithing and Tailoring. Not plat circulating in Bazaar to get pelts/ore/whatever, but plat directly sunk out of the game into vendors.
Now consider a recent event, the Halloween quests, that granted any character of any level interested in the least in the novelty of a skeleton illusion the item of their dreams. From bleeding-edge progressive raiders to complete newbie level 15s, anyone with any interest in skele illusion could get it that month.
Think about how long Amulet of Necropotence has been farmed. The mobs that can drop it have never survived more than 24 hours of spawning. Ever. In six years. And barring 1 in a mil kluztiness, none has ever left the game. The number of them has increased linearly for SIX YEARS.
And yet pre and post Halloween, AoN sells for upward of 300kpp. High value as a droppable instant clicky is fine, but the *entire* novelty market has fallen out, and the supply is constant, even increasing. Where's the price adjustment?
The fact is, there's far more plat in circulation than there should be. The crazy multiplication of sunk costs associated with playing are attempts to remove past currency gluts from the market, but obviously aren't keeping pace. I soloed a rarish drop from Stoneroot Falls yesterday on the way to a raid in Demiplane, and PC'd it with my more active seller friends. They said this item, which would only be good to strict non-raiders, as a weapon worse than 1.5/despair, is worth over 100kpp. It boggled me that folks could spend so much on the equivalent of an old Heirophant Cloak (one of the best droppable items a group could get), but it's true. Plat is that proliferant. Folks can name their price on whatever they want, from crystals to MDS to OoW aug parts, and get it, because there's so much plat floating around. Sellers of commodities don't have to compete for their slice of player resources, because that pie is is effectively infinite, and seems ever-expanding.
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