by Giac » Fri Nov 04, 2005 6:56 am
Subjective observations are worth jack, period. You want parses.
A Shaman with 1500 AC vs. a Shaman with 2k AC can not have equal HPs, unless you are setting it up to be that way(which I have done and can tell you that the difference was a big fat zero).
All the mitigation parses have shown that if a tank adds more AC, the gains are pretty linear, no matter at what AC range. There's no observable sweet spot, which allows a sole conclusion: The parses we are looking at are showing the effects of "mitigated" AC.
Your class's returns past the soft cap determine your mitigation and you can be certain that a Shaman's returns past the soft cap(which is only a fraction of your displayed AC) are ridiculously low.
There are 2 factors that require our consideration when we look at AC and mitigation:
1) Incoming DPS
2) DI distribution
AC will impact the DI distribution more so than it will affect the incoming DPS(even for tanks). This means that a Shaman with higher AC will see lower DI hits. The incoming DPS he will look at hardly changes, so that we, the Shamans, can definitely ignore 1).
Let's analyze 2):
Lower DI hits means that damage income is less spikey on high DI mobs, which at a first look, is a great thing. What people forget, though, is that a higher AC Shaman sacrifices HPs for that AC, so that a Shaman with higher AC and lower HPs will also have a smaller buffer for when the RNG blesses you with high DI hits, which is unavoidable.
When those spikes occur, the higher HP Shaman will be able to absorb additional "high DI" hits because of a bigger HP buffer, which in turn means that he has a better chance at shifting the DI figure towards the average DI by just living "longer" and thus survive longer.
I'll try and explain it better with an example:
We all know that rolling a 100 sided die will over time average out to a mean value of 50.5 per roll. The more rolls you do, the more the average shifts towards that mean value. So the more DI rolls you can fit into going from 100% HP to 0% HP, the higher is the chance to shift the DI figure towards the mean DI.
So let me clarify this with some DI values(we will assume the mean DI for this mob on a Shaman(The Shaman has given up ~400 HPs for ~113 AC) is around 9 and the DI value is 50(DB 250) (slightly higher than RS mob level)) and tell me which one you'd prefer:
High AC Shaman(7600 HPs):
DI9, DI9, DI19(extra AC kicked in), DI5, DI10, DI8, DI14, DI9, DI12, DI6 - The Shaman will have taken 5050 damage from the DI portion and 2500 from the DB damage for a total of 7550 damage
High HP Shaman(8000 HPs):
DI9, DI9, DI20(lower AC resulted in an extra DI damage compared to above), DI5, DI10, DI8, DI14, DI9, DI12, DI6 - The Shaman will have taken 5100 damage from the DI portion and 2500 from the DB portion for a total of 7600 damage
All the extra AC has saved ACShaman 50 HPs, but the HPShaman has a 400 HP buffer compared to the AC Shaman and the next "expected" DI value is going to be towards DI1(in fact HPShaman's buffer allows him to endure 2 extra DI hits(only a DI4 hit would kill him on the next round, but he'd live on DI1, DI2 and DI3 to meet the mean DI distribution(for a total of DB(250)+DI1(50) = 300 damage), but only one of the two is able to absorb the next hit and live and it's the HPShaman(7550 + 300 = dead ACShaman, 7600+300 = HPShaman stays alive). Result: The ACShaman has taken less damage overall, the HPShaman lived longer.
This is how the mitigation game looks for Shamans. If you want to verify, go parse!
Disclaimer: The effects of additional AC for a tank are much greater so that the above example doesn't hold true for them as it does for us.